tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Friday, March 29th, 10:40AM

Mortgages

Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Thursday 28 March 2024  Add your comment
Lifetime Home Masterclass

New Zealand’s first debt-free home equity release income solution, Lifetime Home allows Kiwi retirees aged 70 and above to access the wealth tied up in their home to bolster their retirement income.

Lifetime Home requires no mortgage, no debt, and no interest payments. Instead, it offers certainty and financial peace of mind when it’s needed most.

Master Class for Financial and Mortgage Advisers
Join Lifetime’s founder and managing director, Ralph Stewart and Chief Marketing Officer, Chelsea Devlin to find out everything you need to know about Lifetime Home.

Lifetime Home master classes will be held in-person in Christchurch, Wellington, and Auckland, and online.

To book your tickets CLICK HERE

rss
Latest Headlines

Westpac predicts three more OCR cuts this year

Another three OCR cuts are on the way, thanks to darkening economic clouds, according to one of the major banks.

Monday, July 6th 2015, 11:06AM

by Miriam Bell

Ongoing price issues for the dairy sector and the peaking of the Canterbury rebuild mean New Zealand’s near-term growth outlook is no longer looking so rosy, states Westpac’s latest weekly commentary.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said last week’s fall in dairy prices, along with evidence of slowing reconstruction activity in Canterbury, have percolated through to New Zealand consumer and business sentiment.

In recent surveys, businesses’ expectations for their own activity fell sharply for the second month in a row, and the decline was concentrated among construction firms as well as farmers.

This own-activity measure tends to be a leading indicator for GDP growth, and signals a slower economy through mid-2015, Stephens said.

“In light of these developments – and the possibility that the current volatility on global markets will further depress confidence in the months ahead – we now expect three more OCR cuts this year.”

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank’s cuts will come in July, September and October and will take the OCR back down to 2.5%.

The plunging exchange rate, which will push up inflation, and the fact that Auckland’s housing market just continues to steam ahead did present an argument against more OCR cuts, Stephens continued.

“But these arguments are likely to count for relatively little to the RBNZ, which is under pressure to lift inflation towards 2%, is wary of further downside surprises to inflation, and has been dismissive of the inflation risks posed by rising house prices.”

In Stephens’ view, there is no question that the combination of a dairy downturn and a booming Auckland property market will see New Zealand’s financial imbalances widen.

While the country’s balance sheet has improved over recent years, the RBNZ’s latest credit figures show that New Zealand’s economic resilience is starting to erode.

Stephens said debt is now growing at a faster rate than nominal GDP - for both sensible reasons (dairy farmers accessing credit lines to get through bad times) and for more worrying ones (mortgage debt rising on the back of Auckland’s property market).

“It’s worth noting that much of the deleveraging of recent years has been on the corporate side – the ratio of household debt to household income is already back where it was in 2008.

“It is likely to rise further if house prices continue their upward trajectory.”

New Zealand’s saving grace is its floating exchange rate, Stephens said.

The weaker dollar has already helped to balance out the recent falls in dairy prices and likely further falls will cushion dairy farmers’ cash flow and provide a windfall for other agricultural exporters.

Tags: Mortgage Rates OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Westpac

« Falling dairy prices to prompt OCR cutsFalling business confidence points to... OCR cuts »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

Last updated: 28 March 2024 9:42am

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

News Bites
Compare Mortgage Rates
Compare
From
To
For

To graph multiple lenders, hold down Ctrl key while clicking in list box

Also compare rates to OCR
Find a Mortgage Broker

Add your company

Use map
About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com