While a Government housing strategy to be released later this year is being billed as helping low income families buy homes in increasingly difficult times, there's little sign that house prices are bolting away this year.
Housing Minister Mark Gosche said last week that a ten-year housing strategy was being prepared by the Government and would include a number of proposals including mortgage assistance for low income families. Although the Government stopped state house sales and introduced income-related rents last year, he said that the aim wasn't to end up with more people renting than living in their own homes.
Gosche expressed concern that it would become increasing difficult for home-buyers as prices become prohibitive in cities such as Auckland.
However, ASB Bank's housing report for the December quarter (released last week) points out that while there's been a recent improvement in housing activity, that doesn't mean another housing boom lies ahead.
"Consumer debt levels remain high, the need to save will be an ongoing issue, population growth is slow and a lack of supply will clearly not be a problem as it was in the mid '90s."
The ASB Bank report advises against taking the median house price as a guide to changes in the value of houses. It says that impacting on the lower end of the market during much of last year was economic uncertainty, high interest rates and an absence of investor activity.
"During the last few years, investors have gone elsewhere in search of higher returns, reflecting an absence of capital gain and concerns over the impact of rents of the Government's housing policy. This has included an increasing move into offshore sharemarkets.
"With the outlook for both rentals and house prices being subdued, this diversification of savings into other asset types is expected to continue."
While the effects on the market of the Government's proposed housing strategy are clearly speculation at this point, there are some effects flowing through from its recent policy changes on state housing rentals. The bank says that residential property investors are continuing to stay clear of low-priced homes and, in particular, of areas with a concentration of state housing rental properties.
"Recent falls in state sector rents are expected to have a downward impact on private sector rents at that lower end of the market."