by Jenny Ruth
A net 58% of the 600 people surveyed in the December quarter believe house prices will rise, up from 45% in the September quarter.
The number of people thinking it’s a good time to buy is stable at 40%, the same as in the September quarter. In the September quarter, only 16% said it was a bad time to buy and that rose to 22% in the December quarter.
The pattern is more stark in Auckland where a net 64% of respondents think house prices will keep rising but only 5% believe it’s a good time to buy.
ASB Bank’s chief economist Anthony Byett sees the survey results overall as a sign of a healthy market.
The element of doubt creeping into some people’s minds "is an acknowledgement that the favour’s gone the way of the vendor," Byett says. The figures show demand is still there but that some people are becoming more cautious.
"That, to me, isn’t an unhealthy sign." The worry would be if people continued to think it was a good time to buy even though they expect prices to keep escalating, he says.
Instead, "the upswing in housing is not likely to become excessive and therefore end with a sudden downturn."
"The situation of strong demand and limited supply persists and the overall outlook for the housing market remains positive. The results suggest less market volatility than we’ve seen in previous housing cycles."
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