However it is not predicting a repeat to the sort of returns seen in the 1990s. Rather than an era of what US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan famously called “irrational exuberance” (and that was in 1996, before things really got out of hand) BT characterises the coming period as one of “rational equanimity”, BT’s head of retail sales and service in New Zealand, Matthew Mimms, says.
"We’re looking at modest, but unspectacular, growth in equities."
The company likens the situation now to that of late 1982 – a time when Businessweek ran a cover story entitled ‘The Death of Equities’?
That article appeared just before a major surge in returns, after a long flat period.
Though not as long as the one we have just seen. The US stockmarket’s post-2000 bear run has been going for 30 months.
"Stocks finally bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2002," Puttnam Investments head of global currency Dirk Morris told a roadshow in Wellington.
And while there has been the flight to safer investments, such as property, bonds, and fixed interest, he believes that has now peaked.
"Over the longer term it is still hard to find asset classes that will make the 8-10% return you will get in International equity markets."
The turn of the world economy means the trading environment for companies has improved markedly, he says – which is the key news for share prices.
"This recovery will be a little different though – deflationary pressures are going to continue throughout the recovery, which is very different to the past where inflation has been the first fear."
Normally a major concern would be the US consumer going on a buying spree, but that is not likely this time – "they are carrying too much debt."
That is even with the stimulus of a tax cut and a drop in the US dollar.
There are ongoing concerns about “geopoltical instability” and this is likely to continue for a few years yet, he says.
Those concerns aside though, the company believes a recovery is under way.
“And share markets love recoveries,” says BT economist Chris Caton.
In a study of recoveries over the last century he said the average rise was 19% in the first year.
"Having said that, I wouldn’t be banking on 19% this time – it will be more subdued than that." Rob Hosking is a Wellington-based freelance writer specialising in political, economic and IT related issues. Special Offers © Copyright 1997-2024 Tarawera Publishing Ltd. All Rights Reserved
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