by Rob Hosking
That did not mean the local sharemarket was not a good place to invest, but rather that finding firms with a “deep discount” was now extremely difficult.
“The sharemarket in New Zealand has been very reasonably priced over the past two years.”
The returns over the past quarter have been particularly pleasing, but Dyer suggests that this may not be seen again for a while.
“We had deep uncertainty last year and a massive loss of confidence, but these result show that markets have a way of surprising on the rebound.”
The growth in New Zealand over the past few years is unsustainable, however, he warns.
The local economy could see a significant slowdown soon, although he would not put a time frame on that.
The amount of borrowing and other growth-fuelled activity has seen the country’s balance of payments deficit enlarge significantly, and he predicted this could soon reach 6%.
“That means spending growth is going to have to slow down at some point, to meet domestic income.”
That will affect the returns from local companies, and also the wider economy.
There were parallels with the mid to late 1990s, he said, when a large balance of payments deficit “led to two years of zero growth and an extremely large fall in the New Zealand dollar”.
It is unlikely New Zealand will see anything as dramatic as the 1997-99 economic doldrums - other factors, such as the Asian Crisis, drought, and unstable government exacerbated the issue at that time.
Rob Hosking is a Wellington-based freelance writer specialising in political, economic and IT related issues.
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