Hedge funds have over the past few years tended to be weak in the first quarter of the calendar year and picked up again towards the end of the second quarter.
This year has been particularly bad for several reasons, Shaw says.
Factors such as the downgrade of General Motors and Ford debt – “the most dramatic event of the year” have had an impact, she says, and that event was followed by a "directionless" period.
There has since been a move to increase “long only” exposure, she says, in anticipation of a pick up. GAM has doubled its exposure to Europe in expectation of a change, she says.
“The most difficult time is when the markets turn. A few years ago it was clear the New Zealand dollar was going to be weak.
“We looked at things at the end of 2001 and thought ‘oh-oh’ and put our first hedge of 25% on the New Zealand dollar.
“With the benefit of hindsight we should have done more. “
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