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An interesting rumour surfaced the other day that the ANZ National Bank is contemplating a takeover of recently list broking firm Mike Pero Mortgages.
Of course the bank isn't saying anything. Its official response is: "We don't comment on market rumours."
While this is a rumour, you can see the logic behind it. MPM is quite possibly considered to be cheap. Since its IPO last year the share price has barely lifted above its issue price of $1. Yesterday it closed at 84c and has bounced from just under 70c a few weeks ago.
How do you explain the bounce? On one hand people are expecting the housing market to slow so it should weaken, however there has been some strong data recently that may have buoyed it.
Looking at ANZ. Well it has been losing market share. ASB Bank and BNZ said they did well during the price war, and we understand other lenders, like Sovereign, have also written record numbers of home loans.
One way of capturing market share maybe to buy Pero's, as it is the largest mortgage broking firm in New Zealand.
Another reason is that across the Tasman recently we have seen a couple of the banks buying up distribution. This strategy - whether right or wrong - is also one that is being played out in the financial planning/managed fund markets too.
Maybe today - when ANZ announces its New Zealand results - we will find out whether the rumour has any currency.
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It is simplisitic to believe the ANZ would increase its lending book by taking over Mike Pero. ANZ is large enough to have other strategies to achieve this end. As for the Mike Pero share price, it will continue to drift as the housing market comes off its cyclical high, and mortgage lending contracts. Share values include anticipation of growth, and it is difficult to see any greater than expected growth for the next few years.