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A bold prediction

Thursday, August 3rd 2006, 7:23AM

by Philip Macalister

I'll stick my head out here and make a bold prediction: The government will back down on its proposed changes to tax on investments. They won't go through Parliament in their present form.

This view has been percolating along in my mind for a little while now as it becomes apparent that the government is starting to realise that the changes are hugely unpopular.

This is clearly borne out by the unprecedented number of submissions (more than 3600) which have been made to the select committee. The government has clearly misread this one.

The more people I talk to the more I realise this issue is big and the anti-feeling is right down at the grass roots level - the Mum and Dad investors.

Plenty of organisations have been talking about it and it appears fund management/investment firms have engaged their clients on the proposals, and motivated them to find out more and take a position.

On the other hand it has been the government's job to champion the changes, and promote their benefits. To my mind they haven't done this at all well or with any conviction.

In terms of support it is worth observing that some fund managers have said they are in favour of the changes, but none of them have come out strongly in support of the proposals. Likewise their representative association, the Investment Savings and Insurance Association, has been quiet. If they support the proposals they should be alongside the government barracking them on.

There has been none of that.

Assuming I am right there needs to be a Plan B as these changes are critical to Kiwisaver. It doesn't seem like there is one at the moment, which leaves the government in a right pickle, and investors less certain about what might happen to their money.

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.49 ▼6.19 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
ANZ ▼7.89 6.79 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 6.19 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 8.39 ▼6.19 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - ▼6.19 5.79 5.79
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One ▼7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay ▼7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std ▼7.94 6.45 5.89 5.79
BNZ - TotalMoney ▼7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.70 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.95 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.75 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.70 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼5.99 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.15 ▼6.19 ▼5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.15 ▼6.69 ▼6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.60 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.20 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.35 6.15
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.00 6.50 -
ICBC ▼7.49 ▼6.15 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 8.25 7.19 6.69 6.59
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.75 6.69 6.19 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 8.49 ▼6.95 ▼6.29 ▼6.29
SBS Bank Special - ▼6.35 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.94 5.45 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
TSB Bank 9.19 7.09 6.59 6.59
TSB Special 8.39 6.29 5.79 5.79
Unity 8.64 6.29 5.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.20 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.50 ▼6.50 ▼5.89 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 8.39 6.47 6.10 5.79

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