2 Comments 2 Commentsby Susan Edmunds
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie told Good Returns he thought the global economy was look very wobbly. US equities were down after a very volatile week, US 10-year Treasury bonds were down, copper prices had tanked and oil prices were down.
“That tells you something about global demand. There’s growing concern around what is going on around the globe. We’re starting to see signs that the global economy is slowing rapidly. The risk profile is heightened, the global scene is far from stable," he said.
He said that could have an effect on the New Zealand economy, too. “If you go back and look at every time there’s been a big turn in the economy, it does tend to coincide with the international situation.”
But Brian Gaynor, of Milford Asset Management, did not agree the outlook was so negative. “Oil-producing countries have a problem but the US is the biggest economy by a long way and all the signs are very positive there.”
He said with interest rates reaching 4% at best for money in the bank, on which investors would paid full tax, equities still looked a better option.
“I do think there will be ups and downs this year but generally speaking I think if you are in equities you’ll come out better at the end of the year than if you had money in the bank.”
John Berry, of Pathfinder Asset Management, said his firm was moving to a slightly more conservative position in its World Equity Fund, with more exposure to utilities.
The oil price collapse would slow inflation, he said, which could be particularly problematic in Europe.
“Geopolitical risks such as the outcome of Greek elections and how some countries react to the lower oil price are not easy to plan for. The US seems to be the only region firing up world growth at the moment - Europe, Japan and China are disappointing. So yes, there are things to worry about. We may be staring at a period of higher equity market volatility, but this does not mean markets are heading into a meltdown,” he said.
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The USA data is all rigged, the unemployment, gap, inflation , new jobs figures are massaged to give the look they want at the moment, ther are many many shops closing,and going under, just go to USA watchdog and many of the others , they have got a list. So it is also in the interest of the local funds to keep your/our money in as long as pos, they wouldn't suggest you cash up now would they, that couls create a run, Bank Santander a run happening there now, it will spread ...and so we could go on.
Cheers Gibbson