tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Sunday, August 14th, 5:29PM

Mortgages

Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Wednesday 10 August 2022  Add your comment
SHARE CEO departs; ASB increases profit

In a surprise move the boss at SHARE and Newpark resigns. [READ ON]

ASB lifts annual net profit 11%.

rss
Latest Headlines

OCR hikes on the horizon

The OCR has troughed and the risks are now skewed to OCR hikes from the middle of next year, according to one major bank.

Wednesday, December 21st 2016, 10:46AM

by Miriam Bell

ANZ’s last market focus report of the year is now out and the predictions are for ongoing solid economic growth.

There was economic growth of around 3.5% over 2016 and the bank’s forward indicators suggest that a similar pace of annualised growth is on track for the first half of 2017.

The key drivers for this growth are familiar and likely to persist.

They include strong population growth due to record migration, a large construction sector pipeline, a strengthening labour force, booming tourism and better prospects for the dairy sector.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said that while activity growth is likely to moderate over the course of 2017 as natural headwinds build, they don’t expect a full-blown downturn.

“The global scene remains a key risk but the economy does not have the internal imbalances, or excesses, that we’ve seen before at this stage of the cycle that can demand the piper is paid.”

It was possible to identify some worrying signs that would usually foreshadow a downturn, like excessive credit growth and overvalued house prices.

However, Bagrie said that external imbalances are contained, the housing boom has not turned into a consumption boom, and domestic inflation pressures remain low.

Further, the regulatory framework has been tightening and financial institutions are actively leaning against the top of the cycle given funding pressures.

These factors won’t stop a slowing of growth – which will moderate on the back of capacity constraints, easing credit growth, tighter financial conditions and a cooler housing market – but that is natural and healthy, he said.

This means that the Reserve Bank will no longer be feeling pressure to cut the OCR from its record low of 1.75%.

Bagrie said that with strong growth, capacity pressures emerging, and inflation past its lows, further OCR cuts would now be difficult to justify.

“We expect the RBNZ to start gradually removing stimulus by mid-2018. We forecast 50 basis points of OCR hikes over 2018, lifting the cash rate to 2.25%.

“However, we currently see the risk skewed towards earlier action and would not completely rule out RBNZ hikes in the second half of 2017.”

ANZ has previously said it believes mortgage rates have seen their lows and that from here on in they will rise, albeit gradually.

Tags: ANZ interest rates mortgages OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Reserve Bank

« Rising rates, quieter marketSurprise spike in mortgage lending »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 6.35 5.25 5.45 5.99
ANZ 6.34 5.59 6.05 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build - - - -
ANZ Special - 4.99 5.45 5.69
ASB Bank 6.35 ▼4.99 5.45 5.69
Avanti Finance 6.65 - - -
Basecorp Finance 7.25 - - -
Bluestone 6.89 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 4.95 5.39 5.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.39 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 6.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 6.39 5.55 5.99 6.29
BNZ - TotalMoney 6.39 - - -
CFML Loans 7.25 - - -
China Construction Bank - 5.35 5.80 5.99
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼4.89 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.25 ▼4.99 5.39 ▼5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.25 ▼5.49 5.89 ▼6.19
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 5.35 5.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 4.60 ▼4.79 5.29 5.39
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Heretaunga Building Society 6.50 5.60 6.00 -
HSBC Premier 6.34 5.09 5.34 5.59
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 6.00 ▼4.79 5.15 ▼5.69
Kainga Ora 5.85 5.31 5.58 5.97
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 6.00 5.95 6.45 6.79
Kiwibank - Offset 6.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.95 5.45 5.89
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Nelson Building Society ▲6.95 5.55 6.15 -
Pepper Money 5.29 - - -
Resimac 5.59 6.54 6.44 6.98
SBS Bank 6.29 ▼5.39 ▼5.79 5.99
SBS Bank Special - ▼4.89 ▼5.29 5.49
Select Home Loans 6.89 - - -
TSB Bank 7.05 5.65 6.09 6.39
TSB Special 6.25 4.85 5.29 5.59
Unity 5.65 4.95 5.55 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.49 5.55 6.15 -
Westforce credit union - Special - 5.35 5.85 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westforce credit union - Standard 5.85 6.05 6.55 -
Westpac 6.39 5.55 6.05 6.29
Westpac - Offset 6.39 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.95 5.45 5.69
Median 6.34 5.33 5.79 5.93

Last updated: 11 August 2022 8:40am

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

News Bites
Compare Mortgage Rates
Compare
From
To
For

To graph multiple lenders, hold down Ctrl key while clicking in list box

Also compare rates to OCR
Find a Mortgage Broker

Add your company

Use map
About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com