by The Landlord
ANZ monitors a series of eight “property gauges”, in its monthly Property Focus commentary, to help it determine the state of the market.
It says that the gauges are portraying a market that remains brisk, but that contains an aura of vulnerability.
Of the eight gauges only one is supportive of rising prices and that is one of the less influential; namely global comparisons.
It says that New Zealand property is “still cheap on a global basis” and it notes that the market is becoming more integrated with Australia.
Two of the indicators that are neutral for prices are the supply/demand balance and migration.
ANZ says that supply has caught up with demand and that migration flows have stabilised around the 12,000 mark.
Factors depressing, or likely to push down, prices include:
| House prices (Annual % change) | 3 month % change | Average days to sell | Comment | |
| Northland | 16.1 | 2.8 | 39 | Perky prices, with selling days heading south |
| Auckland | 9.6 | -0.5 | 32 | Recent declines could be an ominous sign |
| Waikato | 10.4 | 1.0 | 35 | On a par with the nation |
| Bay of Plenty | 9.0 | 1.1 | 46 | Long time, good time and a competitive prive |
| Gisborne | 19.1 | -0.9 | 36 | Settling down after a volatile patch |
| Hawke's Bay | 0.5 | -0.7 | 42 | Taking longer to sell and getting less for it |
| Taranaki | 13.4 | 1.5 | 29 | Nice outlook in the 'Naki |
| Manawatu-Wanganui | 11.6 | 8.2 | 32 | Solid price rises |
| Wellington | 5.3 | 0.2 | 24 | A short black in the capital |
| Nelson-Marlborough | 4.8 | 0.7 | 39 | Getting back to its feet after a stumble |
| West Coast | 15.8 | 3.5 | 39 | The Coast enjoys the limelight |
| Canterbury | 10.6 | -0.1 | 32 | Steady as she goes |
| Otago | 19.2 | 10.2 | 42 | Leading the price gains across the nation |
| Southland | 2.8 | 5.8 | 28 | Faster sales and rising prices |
| NEW ZEALAND | 9.1 | 1.2 | 33 | selling time drops to a six-month low |
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