by The Landlord
The report uses ten gauges to determine the future direction of house prices.
Migration is the only driver that is purely pushing prices up.
ANZ’s economists say rising prices are hindering affordability, serviceability is down – which rising interest rates will make worse, sales turnover has dropped and while Auckland’s listing numbers are improving, the rest of New Zealand is slow to follow suit.
"So far, the housing market has been supported by housing shortages, high net immigration and low (but rising) mortgage interest rates. The RBNZ will be reassured that the high LVR speed limits and now rising mortgage rates are slowing housing activity. Climbing housing construction and further increases to mortgage interest rates will continue to dampen pressure on prices. But the RBNZ are likely to remain vigilant given the fi nancial stability and inflation risks posed by the overheated Auckland property market."
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