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What the RBNZ said today

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75%. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020.

Thursday, November 8th 2018, 9:00AM

There are both upside and downside risks to our growth and inflation projections. As always, the timing and direction of any future OCR move remains data dependent.

The pick-up in GDP growth in the June quarter was partly due to temporary factors, and business surveys continue to suggest growth will be soft in the near term. Employment is around its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.

GDP growth is expected to pick up over 2019. Monetary stimulus and population growth underpin household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure and housing also supports domestic demand. The level of the New Zealand dollar exchange rate will support export earnings.

As capacity pressures build, core consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.

Downside risks to the growth outlook remain. Weak business sentiment could weigh on growth for longer. Trade tensions remain in some major economies, raising the risk that trade barriers increase and undermine global growth.

Upside risks to the inflation outlook also exist. Higher fuel prices are boosting near-term headline inflation.  We will look through this volatility as appropriate. Our projection assumes firms have limited pass through of higher costs into generalised consumer prices, and that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at our target.   

We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation.

Tags: OCR

« Job numbers 'cast doubt' on future OCR cutOCR reaction: cut less likely and rates to stay low »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.79 ▼4.45 ▼4.79 4.99
ANZ Special - ▼3.95 ▼4.29 4.49
ASB Bank 5.80 ▼4.44 4.69 ▲4.89
ASB Bank Special - ▼3.95 4.29 ▲4.49
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.50 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.95 - - -
BNZ - Special - 4.15 ▼3.99 4.49
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.90 4.69 4.79 4.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.90 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 5.20 5.25 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.70 4.85 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.80 4.69 4.79 4.79
HSBC Premier 5.89 3.99 4.19 4.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - 3.85 - -
HSBC Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ICBC 5.80 4.59 4.69 5.09
Kiwibank 5.80 4.55 4.69 4.99
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.80 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.05 4.19 4.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 6.10 5.10 5.45 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.94 5.30
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.89 4.85 5.05 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 3.95 4.49
Sovereign 5.90 ▼4.45 4.69 ▲4.89
Sovereign Special - ▼3.95 4.29 ▲4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.75 ▼4.10 4.35 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.75 ▼4.60 4.85 4.99
TSB Bank 5.80 ▼4.45 4.69 4.99
TSB Special - ▼3.95 4.19 4.49
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.95 4.69 4.79 5.19
Westpac - Offset 5.95 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼3.95 4.29 4.49
Median 5.89 4.45 4.69 4.79

Last updated: 15 November 2018 10:05am

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