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OCR cut to 1.5%: could it fall even further?

The Reserve Bank has cut the Official Cash Rate to 1.50%, and economists believe we could see a further cut later this year.

Wednesday, May 8th 2019, 2:19PM

Adrian Orr

The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Adrian Orr, (pictured), has taken the step of easing the OCR amid weak inflation, concerns about future employment, and a slowdown in global economic growth. Economists believe we may see a further cut if the 25 basis point reduction is "not effective".

Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, told TMM the RBNZ MPC had "done what was expected" amid weak economic indicators. He believes it will not be the only action taken on the OCR this year. "We are in the camp that believe another cut may be required in order to have a meaningful impact. One step has been taken today and we expect another later in the year."

Yet Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB, told TMM pointed out there appeared to be "no urgency" to cut the OCR again this year. "The OCR outlook appears more balanced. The Reserve Bank will be judicious about another cut, rather than rushing into it." Like Kerr, Tuffley expects a further fall this year. 

The OCR cut, and prospect of a further fall, will be welcomed by borrowers, who look set to enter an unprecedented period of low interest rates. "This great news for borrowers, and bad news for savers," said Kerr. "Other winners are exporters, as the Kiwi [currency] takes a hit."

Independent economist Michael Reddell welcomed the decision, and pointed to the central bank's inflation targets. "They still only think inflation will be back to 2% two years from now, on growth projections that themselves look optimistic."

NZIER's Christina Leung was surprised the bank acted so early, and also believes there will be another cut in this cycle, but that it could be a few years away.  She added: "Given its dovish rhetoric, we expect on balance the Reserve Bank will follow up with another cut over the coming years.

 

Tags: ASB Kiwibank RBNZ Reserve Bank

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.14 6.75 6.39
ANZ 8.64 ▼7.45 ▼7.09 ▼6.95
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
ASB Bank 8.64 7.14 6.75 6.39
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.39
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 ▼7.45 ▼7.09 ▼6.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼6.59 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 ▼6.79 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 ▼7.29 ▼6.99 ▼6.85
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 ▼6.69 ▼6.35 ▼6.15
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.69 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.74 7.35 6.99
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 ▼7.75 ▼7.39 ▼7.19
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.39
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.65 7.25 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.74 7.09 6.95
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 7.14 6.49 6.35
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.14 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 7.79 7.55 7.45
TSB Special 8.64 6.99 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.55 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 8.64 7.49 7.35 6.99
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 6.89 6.75 6.39
Median 8.64 7.14 6.82 6.44

Last updated: 19 July 2024 9:21am

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