The Reserve Bank is set to announce its latest OCR decision next week. Logan says New Zealand is at a turning point. The questions are “how fast the turn will be and when,” he says.
While there were signs of economic green shoots at the start of the years and the expectation of a “classical normal” recovery that is off the cards now with the war in the Middle East.
Logan explains in this episode of GRTV, why the RBNZ is in a “tricky position”.
His view is that there will be two or three 25 basis point hikes.
“That’s probably enough,” he says.
“There are no fears of an overheating economy.”
“I think the RBNZ has to raise rates or at least indicate they are on the cards.”
Private credit is a growing part of the investment universe and Fisher Funds has openly outlined its intentions in this space.
Logan says while Fisher’s investment in this area is small to date it is still in the hundreds of millions of dollars and will grow.
He says New Zealand has been a little slow in its adoption of private market investing, but that can be a good thing so the market can learn lessons from offshore.
While US private credit funds have seen closures and redemption restrictions, he doesn’t see that has a big issue in New Zealand.
“It’s probably a good thing about being late to the party we probably won’t go about it in such an exuberant way and take as many risks. So, we can learn some lessons from that.”
He also says it’s good to go through a cycle, so investors and investees are more aligned on things.
Also in the interview Logan discusses whether the 60:40 portfolio is still the way to go along with how AI is shaping not only equity markets but bond markets too.
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