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Economists change their mind on next OCR movement

Monday 1st of April 2019

The RBNZ shocked the market last week by stating the next OCR move is "likely to be down", due to weak growth here and overseas. The comments have prompted leading economists to revisit their predictions.

Wholesale interest rate markets price in an August cut, according to Bloomberg. The swap rates have already caused lenders to cut mortgage rates, as the market anticipates a long-term low rate environment. 

ANZ's Sharon Zollner believes interest rates will start to fall in August, having previously predicted a fall in November. She believes the Reserve Bank's new Monetary Policy Committee will ease itself in next month, rather than making cuts straight away.

Zollner added: "We have been saying since late last year that the next move in the OCR would be down, but the RBNZ has come around to our view sooner than we had anticipated. However, acknowledging that downside risks to the growth outlook imply downside risks to the OCR is one thing; actually cutting the OCR is another. It is a line-ball call, but on balance we think the RBNZ will wait to see global and domestic risks manifest into something more concrete before actually cutting, in order to rule out the possibility of the unnecessary volatility in interest rates and exchange rates that a U-turn would engender."

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