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Economists remain divided on how early the first rate cut will come

Thursday 11th of April 2024

The Reserve Bank held its OCR steady at 5.5% as just about every economist had expected it would.

ANZ described the RBNZ's statement as “playing with a straight bat,” and that the economy had continued to evolve broadly as had been expected in the February monetary policy statement.

Such a comment “isn't suggestive of any hurry to change stance, and against the backdrop of a market – particularly offshore participants – that saw the potential for a further dovish tilt, we may see mild upside pressure on short-end rates and the NZ dollar over coming days,” Zollner said.

She expects inflation will fall a little more slowly than RBNZ is expecting and RBNZ forecast in February that the first OCR cut wouldn't come before about mid-2025.

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