Interest rate low for one-year terms likely in a few months

One year mortgage interest rates could be as low as 4.5% by September or October this year if the OCR falls to 2.75% in August as predicted by Squirrel Mortgages.

There are three Reserve Bank OCR meetings starting on 28 May and then 9 July and 20 August. At each of these meeting the RBNZ is predicted to cut the OCR by 0.25%, bringing it down to 2.75% by late August.

Assuming that’s what happens, Squirrel Mortgages founder John Bolton says the one-year interest rate could bottom out at about 4.5%.

Longer-term fixed rates likely don’t have that much further to fall, because they’re more heavily influenced by overseas events, including tariff wars and swap rates.