OCR cuts and when they will start

Squirrel Mortgages managing director John Bolton says if the OCR does start falling, previous experience suggests there will be no advance warning from the RBNZ beforehand.

“It always tends to talk rates up until the moment it starts to drop them — so there’s no way of knowing exactly where its head is at.”

Most economists are still picking the end of next year or early 2025 before rates start to fall. ANZ has ditched its prediction there will be another OCR rise early next year, although Westpac is still favouring that track.

Bolton says with the economy’s weakness, he wouldn’t be surprised if there was an OCR cut as early as the middle of next year.