OCR to remain high in 2025

Infometrics expects it to be hovering at about the 4% range. “Relief for mortgage holders will not be massive,” says Gareth Kiernan, Infometrics chief forecaster.

He says the peak in mortgage rates and surge in net migration have raised talk that house prices are close to bottoming out.

“Although inflationary pressures are moderating throughout the economy after two years of costs and prices running out of control, the Reserve Bank will be content to let the effects of its previous interest rate rises continue to dampen demand over the next 12 months,” Kiernan says.

“Faster population growth is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we still see housing affordability and high mortgage rates being a key constraint on the amount buyers can pay for properties throughout the next two years.”