Tony Alexander predicts

He doesn't expect it will be this year but has no doubts about it coming, Alexander told LFG Group's conference in Christchurch last week.

“There's a two-year-plus queue of people who have been holding off buying – at some point they're going to get activated,” he said.

Interest rates also look like they've peaked, although he sees “zero scope” for rate cuts any time soon.

As well, net immigration is surging again – it was 72,300 people in the year ended April, something no economist had expected, and that will put pressure on house rentals.