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Call on OCR cuts but no warning expected from RBNZ

Friday 19th of January 2024

It says the central bank won’t give any warning when it will start – it will be deny-deny-deny-cut.

This is a sensible strategy in a bid to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions that would make it hard to haul a dovish market back from, Sharon Zollner, ANZ’s chief economist says.

From August the ANZ expects the RBNZ to make a steady sequence of 25 basis point OCR cuts taking it to 3.5% over 12 months.

On the bank’s forecasts inflation will be back in the 1-3% band, unemployment will be at 5% and still rising, and the output gap will be deeply negative.

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