Fund update and future outlook
The environment
The big question that is on everyone’s mind is how long can the Covid-19 shock last? The simple answer is no one really knows.The statistical modelling we pay attention to is the R-naught data. Essentially this is an estimation of the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. As it stands around the world at the moment Covid-19 has an R-naught rating of around two to three. The R-naught needs to go below one, ideally near zero, to suppress the virus.
Looking at China’s experience as an example (at least based on the data they published), five days after lockdown their R-naught was declining, and 12 days after lockdown their R-naught crossed below one. Case numbers continued to rise, even with a declining R-naught, but at a much slower pace.
Korea’s R-naught is following a similar pattern and Europe’s R-naught has started declining – we think.
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