Half-way predictions scorecard

We are at the half-way point in the year, and to say markets have been “interesting” over the past six months is an understatement. After soaring on optimism around Trump’s pro-business policies, investor enthusiasm was given a cold hard reality check by the President’s tariff policies. Markets then made a stunning comeback as tariffs were paused, rates were dialled back, the US began negotiations for trade deals (and even agreed one – with the UK) and there was some progress on the stand-off with China.

The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has provided an added risk to consider, particularly around the impact to oil prices, but that has also subsided. Oil prices rose 20% from the onset of Israel’s bombing campaign, but the entrance of the US and a ceasefire has seen prices fall by nearly the same magnitude from 5-month highs. The easing of oil prices has also soothed fears around the global economy, along with inflation, and also increased the prospect of rate cuts by a data-dependent Fed (and other central banks) in the coming months.

Time will tell how this all plays out in the coming six months, and what it means for the top 10 predictions that we made at the start of this year.  With this in mind, we thought it timely to check in on how these are tracking – the answer at this point would seem to be somewhat well, as dissected below.
 

1. Markets grind higher in 2025 but are punctuated by higher volatility as investors digest the implementation of protectionist policies, and changes to central bank positioning.