OCR hike likely despite lockdown: ANZ

According to the bank's team of economists, capacity constraints and inflationary pressures are likely to tip the balance as the RBNZ makes its latest decision next month.

After delaying an expected rate hike in August, ANZ's team believe only a worst-case scenario in Auckland would influence decision-making next time around.

ANZ's Sharon Zollner said there would need to be a "high burden of proof for them not to hike": "They would basically need to be convinced that this is a net negative demand shock."

The team of economists added: "If the RBNZ were to delay hiking the OCR, it would likely be because the latest lockdown had filtered through into significantly and persistently weaker economic confidence and spending, and higher unemployment.