RBNZ signals just two further OCR cuts this cycle

At that point, the central bank is signalling a small increase through to the March quarter of 2028.

In last week's government budget, Treasury put the OCR's low point at 2.5% while in February, RBNZ put the OCR's low point at 3.1% by the December quarter.

Economists have been debating where the OCR will bottom, with ASB, for example, expecting it to reach 2.75% by December this year.
RBNZ cut the OCR to 3.25%, as expected and from 3.5%, saying that while the consumers price index (CPI) rose to an annual rate of 2.5% in the March quarter, core inflation is declining and that there's spare capacity in the economy.

RBNZ is forecasting 0.5% inflation for the June quarter, slightly higher than February's 0.4% forecast, with the annual rate at 2.6%, up from the 2.5% reported for the March quarter.