Treasury warns of more pain if interest rates rise
Interest rates could be hiked in the ongoing battle to bring inflation under control, says Treasury. The Prefu shows mortgage spending will more than double, compared to September 2021.
Prefu, published every three years before a general election, looks at the Crown’s books and forecasts the future. It is based on assumptions and judgments that steer what political parties’ say about the economy as the election campaign heats up, and means possible monetary tightening by any new government if inflation rises.
The latest Prefu is not predicting a recession. In fact, it is forecasting economic growth of 2.6% and wages to grow 4.8% by 2027.
However, Treasury says with persistent inflation and domestic demand pressure, interest rates are expected to remain at their existing level over the next year in order to kick inflation into touch.
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