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The end of the housing cycle

Kiwibank economists expect house prices to trough in a few months.

Monday, May 15th 2023, 11:15AM

by Sally Lindsay

The bank is still expecting a peak of trough of just over 20% and the market to stabilise next year.  

Another RBNZ rate rise, later this month, won’t help, but the bank expects it to be the last.

It will take time, but prices will bottom, and rise again, says Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

The number of sales are bouncing around, the number of days to sell remain frustratingly long, and the rise in total listings reflects the difficulty in selling.

It’s a buyers’ market but they are restricted by rapidly rising interest rates.

“The full force of RBNZ rate hikes, with another coming later this month, will be felt over the next six months.

“The impact of the RBNZ’s heavy hand is already clear. At $780k, the median house price has fallen swiftly from the $925k peak in November 2021.”

Kerr says the RBNZ has helped engineer a correction in the housing market, following excessive moves and “it is upon us”. 

Following an expected, and Kerr says unnecessary, 25bp hike in the OCR to 5.5% in May, the RBNZ is likely to pause and assess.

“We believe the tide has already turned. We continue to think the next giant leap in central banking will be an unwind of heavy handed rate hikes. Central banks may be in a position to start cutting interest rates possibly later this year, or early next year.

Such a turnaround will revive the Kiwi housing market.

“We’re heading into the quieter, cooler, months.  The true litmus test for the housing market will be made in spring. And we expect interest rates to have turned south by then,” he says.

The bank says it is likely some green shoots will emerge over the warmer months.

“We expect interest rates to fall later this year, net migration is surging back, and there’s still a shortage of dwellings.”

Kerr says there should be  some slight gains next year.

Tags: house prices

« House price falls predictions dropProperty prices fall at slower rate as trough is close »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.14 6.75 6.39
ANZ 8.64 7.74 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.14 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.14 6.75 6.39
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.14 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.74 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 6.79 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 6.99 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.49 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.89 6.55 6.35
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.69 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.74 7.35 6.99
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 7.99 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 6.99 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.65 7.25 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.09 7.59 7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.09 8.59 8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.74 ▼7.09 ▲6.95
SBS Bank Special - 7.14 ▼6.49 ▲6.35
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.14 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 7.79 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 6.99 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.55 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.84 7.35 6.99
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.24 6.75 6.39
Median 8.64 7.19 7.17 6.65

Last updated: 12 June 2024 4:04pm

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