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RBNZ cuts OCR to 3%, sees it bottoming at 2.5% in the March 2026 qtr

Wednesday 20th of August 2025

These new forecasts come as the central bank cut the OCR from 3.25% to 3%, as was widely expected.

The bank is now forecasting an OCR of 2.7% in the December quarter and 2.5% in the March quarter of 2026. In May, it was signalling a 2.9% OCR for these two quarters.

RBNZ acnowledged that the recovery had stalled in the June quarter, blaming “global economic policy uncertainty, falling employment, higher prices for some essentials, and declining house prices.”

The central bank said it could see both upside and downside outcomes from here, but that it still thinks there's scope to lower the OCR further.

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