Building consent numbers expected to hold up this year
The housing market continued to roar late last year with new housing consents in November at their highest level for that month since 1973.
Friday, January 9th 2004, 8:52PM
by Jenny Ruth
However, the latest figures were boosted by 744 apartment approvals, up from 109 in October.
Deustche Bank senior economist Darren Gibbs, says excluding apartments, he estimaes consents rose 1.6% in November after a 5.2% rise in October and were 27.4% higher than in November last year.
"Given continued high levels of activity in the existing home market – which tends to lead dwelling consents by five months – we think that dwelling consent issuance is likely to remain firm for some months yet, especially given significant order backlogs," Gibbs says.
Eventually, though, the market should slow, mainly because of slowing population growth. Gibbs notes recent migration data shows a pronounced slowing in net arrivals.
Rising interest rates, assuming the New Zealand dollar doesn’t rise substantially further, should also act as a drag on the housing market.
The 29,821 consents issued in the year ended November were up 14% on the previous year.
Statistics New Zealand says 12 of the 16 regions recorded increases in November compared with November last year and that Auckland consents accounted for 40% of the total.
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