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Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
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Property market predictions

It’s that time of year when we are all contemplating what the year ahead has in store… So here’s GRA managing director Matthew Gilligan’s property market predictions for 2020. [READ ON]

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Big rate falls forecast

Good Returns' survey of economists paints some positive light on the future direction of home loan rates.

Thursday, June 12th 2008, 5:39AM
Good Returns and the NZ Mortgage Mag regularly ask economists for their views on where interest rates are heading.

In our latest survey there are clear, and strong, predictions that rates are headed downwards.

While there is a wide variance on when and how far and fast the Reserve Bank will cut its official rate, it is clear cuts are on their way.

As our graph (right) shows there is some consistency in how rates for various terms will fall.

ASB Bank forecasts fixed home loan rates to be around 0.50% and 1% lower across the board in 12 months and around 1.5% lower in 24 months.

Borrowers have a number of choices. The short term on is to pick a six-month rate now in with the expectation that rates will be lower by year's end.

The risk here is that if the forecasts don't pan out as predicted then you maybe paying a rate above 10% in six month's time.

While there are risks the probability of this happening is on the low side.

A more conservative approach is to pick a one-year rate, allowing more time for the interest rate peak to pass. The risk here is that you fix at higher rates longer than necessary.

Five-year rates are the lowest in the market and going for these is seen as taking on no-risk. However, the downside is that these rates are at historical highs and the probability is that rates will come back. Therefore it is not recommended people fix home loans for this length of time at present.

« Finally some good news for borrowersMexican stand-off in housing market »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 4.05 4.05 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.55 3.55 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 3.89 4.05 4.39
ASB Bank Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.49 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.80 4.95 -
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.54 3.54 3.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 3.97 4.05 4.39
Kiwibank 5.20 4.20 4.30 4.64
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.45 3.55 3.89
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.25 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 4.86 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.39 3.45 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 3.89 4.05 4.39
Sovereign Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.19 4.35 4.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 5.29 3.39 3.55 3.89
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.39 3.55 3.99
Median 5.34 3.99 4.07 4.39

Last updated: 8 January 2020 3:37pm

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