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Survey shows 100 pt cut highly likely

Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard is almost universally expected to slash rates again in December by at least the same magnitude as October’s unprecedented cut reflecting the increasingly gloomy global growth outlook and the collapse of inflation domestically.

Friday, November 21st 2008, 6:14AM

by Jenny Ruth

All nine economists surveyed by www.goodreturns.co.nz now expect Bollard will cut his official cash rate (OCR) from 6.50% to 5.50%. In October, he cut the OCR from 7.50%, the biggest move since the central bank introduced the measure in March 1999.

"The central bank has a very clear mandate: to keep inflation in a zero to 3% bank. The key think that’s happening is inflation is collapsing and that gives them the green light to slash rates," says Stephen Toplis, an economist at Bank of New Zealand.

"Our own forecasts now have zero inflation over the next six months."

Like Hayden Atkins at Macquarie Bank, Toplis is now wondering whether Bollard might cut the OCR by 150 basis points to just 5%.

Atkins says the US, European and British economies are in deep recession, growth in the developing world has stalled and domestic growth is already weak.

"The housing market has not responded to lower fixed mortgages since early 2008 with activity severely depressed. Non-residential construction activity is also set to slow dramatically, given the effects of the credit crunch," Atkins says.

Collapsing dairy prices are also posing "a huge risk to growth. This means that the current recession is now likely to be magnified into something much worse.

Robin Clements at UBS New Zealand had previously been picking a 75 basis point cut but now believes a cut of at least 100 points is inevitable, if only to avoid disappointing financial markets which already have a 100 point cut fully priced in.

"It’s not a good time to disappoint the market," Clements says. Only a few weeks ago, concensus expectations were for a 50 basis point cut but now economists are starting to think a 150 point cut might be on the cards, he says.

Until the global credit crunch took a severe turn for the worse in September, 25 basis point changes to the OCR were the norm.

« Short, yes, but how short?OCR cut to 7.5% »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

Last updated: 28 March 2024 9:42am

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