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Low rates for a very long time: Kiwibank

Economists at Kiwibank predict interest rates will remain low "for a very long time", and say the Official Cash Rate could drop to 0.75%.

Friday, July 19th 2019, 11:49AM

In their latest report on the housing market, the state-backed bank's economists say they are "increasingly convinced in the need for the RBNZ to continue below 1% to 0.75%", as the central bank shifts to an easing bias amid slowing growth.

The economists, led by Jarrod Kerr, (pictured), say wholesale rates already factor in a 1% rate, with the OCR currently at 1.25%. The lender believes current mortgage rates largely reflect the pricing. 

While the lower-for-longer environment looks increasingly certain, it could be tempered by the RBNZ's new capital rules, the economists say. 

"The pricing of lending rates will be impacted by banks starting to accumulate more (expensive) capital into 2020," the lender said.

The economists believe banks will lower deposit rates and raise mortgage rates to adjust to the new capital adequacy requirements.

"Banks could lower deposit rates, and keep lending rates relatively unchanged. Or, banks could keep deposit rates relatively unchanged, and lump the full margin on higher lending rates. We’re likely to get a combination of both," the bank said. 

 

Tags: Kiwibank

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 ▼4.05 ▼3.95 4.49
ANZ Special - ▼3.55 ▼3.45 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 ▼4.05 ▼3.95 4.39
ASB Bank Special - ▼3.55 ▼3.45 3.89
BNZ - Classic - ▼3.55 ▼3.45 3.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 4.95 4.95 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.80 4.95 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.19 4.15 4.09 4.39
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.35 3.35 3.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kiwibank 5.80 4.30 4.24 4.74
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.55 3.49 3.99
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.69 4.79 -
Resimac 4.50 4.86 3.89 3.94
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.65 3.59 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 4.15 4.29 4.55
Sovereign Special - 3.65 3.75 4.05
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.49 4.39 4.85
TSB Special 5.29 3.69 3.59 4.05
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼3.55 ▼3.45 3.99
Median 5.34 4.05 3.95 4.05

Last updated: 18 October 2019 9:00am

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