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Market momentum tipped to continue

Economists predict that the red-hot housing market will continue in the near-term, with listings not growing fast enough to meet demand. 

Wednesday, January 20th 2021, 8:18AM

According to the latest Real Estate Institute data, the days taken to sell a house fell to 31 days in December, compared with a historical average of 39 days.

REINZ data shows the average median house price rose by 19.3% to $749,000 in December, from $628,000 in December 2019, an annual increase of $121,000.

As inventory hits all-time lows, economists at ANZ predict the heat will remain in the housing market in the early part of the year. 

"This speaks to further upwards pressure on prices, reinforced by the fact that house price expectations have increased as the housing market has strengthened," the bank's economists said.

The bank said there was FOMO (fear of missing out), which was likely to boost prices further.

"Lower interest rates have played a role in the recent upturn, but this is only part of the story. A speculative dynamic has also contributed, with participants in the market running on the assumption that strong house price gains will continue."

The bank "eventually" expects cooling in the market, brought on by factors including income considerations, weak population growth, strong building levels and affordability/credit constraints.

The reintroduction of loan to value ratio speed limits is likely to dampen house prices. The central bank plans to reinstate LVRs in March.

"This will have some effect in dampening house price inflation (say 1-2 percentage points, according to the RBNZ), though only temporarily, as with previous imposition of such restrictions," ANZ's team said. 

Tags: house prices housing market Lending

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 2.25 2.59 2.89
ANZ 4.44 2.85 3.19 3.49
ANZ Special - 2.25 2.59 2.89
ASB Bank 4.45 2.25 2.59 2.89
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - ▼2.25 ▼2.55 2.79
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 ▼2.85 ▼3.15 3.39
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
CFML Loans 4.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.45 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 2.50 1.99 2.35 2.45
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.40 3.50 -
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.25 2.35 2.65
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 2.25 2.35 2.65
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.67 2.97 3.13
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.40 3.20 ▼3.40 ▲3.64
Kiwibank - Offset 3.40 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.40 2.35 ▼2.55 ▲2.79
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 3.20 3.24 -
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 3.35 2.99 3.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank 4.54 2.79 2.99 3.29
SBS Bank Special - 2.29 2.49 2.79
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 2.09 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▼2.25 2.59 2.79
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▼2.75 3.09 3.29
TSB Bank 5.34 3.05 3.29 ▲3.59
TSB Special 4.54 2.25 2.49 ▲2.79
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Westpac 4.59 ▼2.85 3.19 3.49
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - ▼2.25 2.59 2.89
Median 4.55 2.71 2.99 2.89

Last updated: 6 May 2021 10:51am

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