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Rising interest rates widely predicted

The Reserve Bank is set to deliver a 25 basis point hike in the cash rate on Wednesday, according to the Kiwibank economics team.

Monday, February 21st 2022, 5:47PM

by Eric Frykberg

They say the OCR will rise to 1% as the central bank enters phase two of its tightening cycle.

Subsequent rises will push the rate to 2.50% during this year.

The economists attribute this movement to an “unbelievably tight” labour market accelerating wages, and inflation sitting at 5.9%, almost double its supposed upper limit.

Imported inflation is making things worse, with supply-chain disruption exacerbated by a weaker currency.

Kiwibank adds the market knows all this already, having pushed up retail rates to customers, and there are some signs that a 50 basis point rise is possible, though Kiwibank thinks it is unlikely.

ASB is also predicting a 25 point rise on Wednesday. It cites similar international and domestic worries as its rivals and its senior economist Mike Jones coins a colourful phrase: “Nightmare on Bond St”.

Unlike Kiwibank, ASB thinks the RBNZ will not stop at 2.5%, but push on to 2.75% before pausing to catch breath.

This would make the current monetary tightening process the most severe since the years 1999 to 2000. Like Kiwibank, ASB raises the possibility of a 50 point jump in the base rate but then concludes it it unlikely.

Westpac shares the worries of the other bank economists and also raises the possibility of a 50 point rise, before concluding that a 25 point rise on Wednesday would do the trick. But its endpoint is higher, at 3%.

« People pay off mortgages earlier – WestpacHeartland Bank raises profits »

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 5.95 4.85 5.35 5.65
ANZ 5.94 ▲5.95 ▲6.40 ▲6.59
ANZ Blueprint to Build - - - -
ANZ Special - ▲5.35 ▲5.80 ▲5.99
ASB Bank 5.85 ▲5.35 ▲5.80 ▲5.99
Avanti Finance 5.95 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.95 - - -
Bluestone 5.89 7.49 8.09 8.19
BNZ - Classic - ▲5.35 ▲5.69 ▲5.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.94 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.94 ▲5.95 ▲6.29 ▲6.59
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.94 - - -
CFML Loans 6.45 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 5.40 6.14 6.40
China Construction Bank Special - 4.45 5.19 5.45
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.75 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.85 4.85 5.35 5.65
Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.85 5.35 5.85 6.15
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 4.95 5.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 4.10 ▲4.40 ▲4.90 ▲5.10
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Heretaunga Building Society 6.10 5.00 5.75 -
HSBC Premier 5.89 4.39 5.15 5.39
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.25 4.39 5.09 5.45
Kainga Ora 5.43 4.57 5.58 5.85
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 5.50 ▲6.19 ▲6.69 ▲6.79
Kiwibank - Offset 5.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special 5.00 ▲5.19 ▲5.69 ▲5.89
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Nelson Building Society 6.45 ▲5.55 ▲6.15 -
Pepper Money 4.49 - - -
Resimac 6.19 5.60 6.16 6.29
SBS Bank 5.79 5.05 5.69 5.89
SBS Bank Special - 4.55 5.19 5.39
Select Home Loans 4.09 4.29 4.86 5.09
TSB Bank - ▲5.65 5.79 ▲6.45
TSB Special ▲4.89 ▲4.85 4.99 ▲5.65
Unity 5.65 4.95 5.55 -
Wairarapa Building Society 5.74 4.95 5.75 -
Westpac 5.94 ▲5.95 ▲6.29 ▲6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 5.94 - - -
Westpac Special - ▲5.35 ▲5.69 ▲5.99
Median 5.85 5.05 5.69 5.99

Last updated: 27 June 2022 8:43am

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