Commercial property: Resilience, recovery, and opportunities ahead

With interest rates easing, valuations stabilising, and capital flows returning, investors are asking the question: is this the moment to invest in commercial property?

Wednesday, September 24th 2025, 7:16PM

by PMG Funds

While global markets remain mixed, New Zealand has been showing encouraging signs of recovery. The Official Cash Rate has dropped to 3.0%, with further reductions expected by the end of the year. Against this backdrop, income-producing assets are regaining appeal as investors seek both resilience and reliable returns.

PMG General Manager Investor Relationships, Matt McHardy, says the current cycle demands perspective.

“After a period of volatility, we’re now seeing tangible signs of recovery,” says McHardy. “It’s not a sharp rebound, but a steady improvement underpinned by fundamentals, and that’s often where the best opportunities emerge.”

Signs of recovery

Across the market, confidence is building. Listed property peers have narrowed trading discounts, offshore capital is re-engaging, and KiwiSaver allocations to property are growing. At the same time, PMG’s own portfolio has recorded valuation stability, with tenant retention and rental growth supporting long-term income.

“This is what makes commercial property unique,” says McHardy. “Even in uncertain times, the combination of long lease terms, quality tenants, and diversified portfolios helps deliver consistent outcomes.”

Why unlisted funds?

For many investors, unlisted commercial property funds offer advantages over both direct ownership and listed stocks. They provide exposure to institutional-grade assets, professional management, and diversification without the administrative burden or exposure to daily market swings.

McHardy highlights another structural advantage.

“Our PIE fund structure can materially improve after-tax outcomes compared to other asset classes. For income-focused investors, that’s a key benefit in the current environment,” he says.

Looking ahead

While office remains patchy, sectors such as industrial, childcare, and large-format retail continue to perform well. Combined with the tailwinds of falling interest rates and renewed capital flows, McHardy believes the outlook is shifting.

“This is a moment to think long-term. Investors who can look beyond short-term noise and position now are likely to benefit as the cycle strengthens,” he says.

Want to learn more? Join PMG at their upcoming national investor roadshow events to hear from industry experts and explore the opportunities ahead in commercial property. Register here

Disclaimer: The information in this article is of a general nature and was current as at September 2025. It is not intended to be regulated financial advice for the purpose of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 and does not take your individual circumstances and financial situation into account. As with any investment, commercial property carries risks, including the risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PMG does not provide financial advice about whether an investment in one of its funds is right for you. Please seek advice from a licensed financial advice provider before making any investment decisions. PMG’s secondary market matching service operates on a queue system, and there is a fee. The time it takes to move shares or units can vary depending on the number of sellers in the queue and the level of demand.

Tags: PMG