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Economist sticks to his house price fall forecast

Bank of New Zealand economist Tony Alexander is sticking with his call that house prices will fall up to 10%, even though figures show something different

Friday, April 1st 2005, 9:51PM

by Jenny Ruth

The housing market has been much stronger for much longer than Bank of New Zealand economist Tony Alexander expected but he’s still only expecting house prices to drop between 5% and 10% over a two to three year period once the inevitable downturn finally arrives.

That’s despite the fact that he also thinks the longer the housing market takes to cool, the greater the impact on pricing.

More than a year ago, Alexander was predicting negatives affecting the market would have begun biting hard by about September last year.

"The new thing is the better labour market, higher job security and better wages growth and therefore a more solid underpinning than was the case last year," he says.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in the December quarter, its lowest level in 20 years, and Alexander says it will probably fall to 3%. This is offsetting a host of factors which are expected to hurt the housing market including booming supply from new houses being built, falling immigration, rising interest rates, would-be first home buyers opting out of the market and growing evidence of an over-supply of rental properties and static or falling rents.

Alexander says that since the beginning of 2001 and the end of 2004 rents around the country rose 8.9%.

But the average house price rose 56% in the same period. He notes the Reserve Bank is forecasting average house prices will fall 4.8% in 2006 and a further 1.9% in 2007.

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 2.85 3.25 3.55
ANZ 4.44 3.20 3.59 4.00
ANZ Blueprint to Build 1.68 - - -
ANZ Special - 2.60 2.99 3.40
ASB Back My Build 1.79 - - -
ASB Bank 4.45 2.85 3.25 3.55
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - ▲2.85 ▲3.25 ▲3.55
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 ▲3.45 ▲3.85 ▲4.15
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
CFML Loans 4.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 2.25 1.85 2.35 2.65
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.80 3.90 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 2.35 2.75 3.05
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.88 3.28 3.59
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.75 ▲3.80 ▲4.00 4.34
Kiwibank - Offset 3.75 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.75 ▲2.95 ▲3.15 3.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 2.99 3.24 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 2.98 2.79 3.29
SBS Bank 4.54 2.99 3.39 3.59
SBS Bank Special - 2.49 2.89 3.09
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▲2.65 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▲2.85 ▲3.25 ▲3.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▲3.35 ▲3.75 ▲3.99
TSB Bank 5.34 3.35 3.75 4.05
TSB Special 4.54 2.55 2.95 3.25
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 4.59 ▲3.45 ▲3.85 4.09
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Westpac Special - ▲2.85 ▲3.25 3.49
Median 4.54 2.95 3.25 3.49

Last updated: 23 September 2021 8:11am

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