No fair price for gold, but use it

There is no way of accurately predicting future gold prices - but uncertainty means the price will almost definitely go higher, a Grosvenor advisor function in Wellington was told.

Wednesday, November 16th 2011, 5:00AM

by Rob Hosking

"There is no fair price for gold," Rothschild's Private Banking head of investments Dirk Wiedmann told the meeting.

"Anything can happen to the gold price. Can it double? Can it triple? Yes. The more uncertainty here is, the more I would like to have gold in my portfolio."

The Zurich-based Wiedmann says that given the ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, the gold price would probably track higher.

"There is no fair price for gold. We have tried very, very hard to come up with an estimate, and we came to the conclusion there is no answer.

"Long term, the price will come down. There is no rational reason to hold on to gold, but if you are concerned about the world economy you should have some gold - physical gold - in your portfolio.

"Gold is a kind of hedge in a portfolio and that is why you are probably not going to be concerned about it not making you any revenue."

Rothschild has been taking an overweight position in "real assets" over the past year, including commodities and property as well as gold, on the grounds these assets are likely tor rise in value in line with inflation.

Highly pessimistic about investment prospects in Europe and (to a lesser extent) in the United States, Wiedmann says treasury bonds are overvalued and currencies in those markets are likely to be weak for a long time.

Rob Hosking is a Wellington-based freelance writer specialising in political, economic and IT related issues.

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