About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds Other Sites:   tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz
Last Article Uploaded: Friday, November 22nd, 5:30PM
rss
Latest Headlines

China more tempting but time not yet right

Investors thinking about dipping their toes back into Chinese equities markets are being given a warning: It’s not time yet.

Friday, May 20th 2016, 6:00AM

by Susan Edmunds

John Berry

China’s equity markets have been through a volatile year.

During the first half of 2015, China’s A Shares soared over 70% only to plummet around 50% by early 2016.  They have drifted down 5% this year. 

John Berry, of Pathfinder, said many investors were starting to consider whether it was time to increase their exposure to China, and other emerging markets.

“Chinese equities are around their five-year average, which is better value than US equities. They are starting to look fairly valued.”

But he said the time was not yet right.

Berry said there were still too many uncertainties. True annual GDP growth was unlikely to match the official predictions of 6.5% to 7% growth each year for the next five years.

“Expectations globally range from 5% to just under 7%.  Some researchers use alternative calculations based on electricity consumption, rail cargo volume, loan volumes and manufacturing indices.  These currently indicate GDP growth somewhere around 4%-5%,” he said.

“Secondly uncertainty remains around a range of key metrics - property, bad loans, currency settings, labour force changes and capital flows,” he said.

Berry said there would be a right time to get back into the Chinese market but it had not yet been reached. “I don’t think the risk-reward tradeoff at the moment is the right one.”

He said everything was so correlated that if China did improve, the rest of the world was likely to follow suit and offer the same gains.

“But if they go down, China will go down further. Chinese equities are volatile - if they fall with the rest of the world, the sell-off in China is likely to be much more dramatic.  The time will come to re-invest in Chinese equities, but on a risk/reward trade off the time is probably not now.”

Tags: China Pathfinder Asset Management

« Code changes likely by year's endLVR restrictions to be reviewed »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
  • [The Wrap] Into the unknown
    “Can I add to your list of unknowns, That is the issue of whether a financial adviser will be allowed to provide advice on...”
    7 hours ago by Murray Weatherston
  • [The Wrap] Into the unknown
    “As a Director of Newpark, I am appalled by this comment above "It is good to get rid of overrides as the money in the past...”
    8 hours ago by Murray Weatherston
  • [The Wrap] Into the unknown
    “Dealergroup fully paid for my level5, professional development days, free crm and advice process, bdm support and just attended...”
    8 hours ago by D.G
  • When is a client really a client?
    “while many interesting points are made, I feel that Murray's earlier comment is closest to the mark. However I believe it...”
    10 hours ago by Tony Vidler
  • Life stages research shows big differences in outcomes
    “"Savers who chose NZ Funds, Fisher Funds or SuperLife achieved a higher level of expected wealth at retirement after fees...”
    1 day ago by Gordon Gecko
Subscribe Now

Weekly Wrap

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 4.05 3.95 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.55 3.45 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 ▼3.89 ▲4.05 4.39
ASB Bank Special - ▼3.39 ▲3.55 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.55 3.45 3.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 4.95 4.95 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.80 4.95 -
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.35 3.35 3.35
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 4.04 3.95 4.39
Kiwibank 5.80 4.14 4.30 4.64
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.25 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 4.86 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.55 3.39 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 4.15 4.29 4.55
Sovereign Special - 3.65 3.75 4.05
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.35 4.25 4.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 5.29 3.55 3.45 3.89
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.55 3.45 3.99
Median 5.34 4.02 4.09 4.39

Last updated: 22 November 2019 4:35pm

News Quiz

The maximum remuneration model for Australian life insurance advisers is to be set at what?

Upfront 40% + trail 20%

Upfront 50% + trail 10%

Upfront 50% + trail 20%

Upfront 60% + trail 10%

Upfront 60% + trail 20%

MORE QUIZZES »

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com