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Lower long-term rates predicted

Advisers and economists have predicted lower interest rates for longer, after Westpac slashed its five year fixed rate by 60 basis points.

Friday, August 17th 2018, 2:12PM

by Dan Dunkley

Westpac today became the market leader for five year fixed rate loans, cutting interest rates to 4.99 percent. The move saw the lender leap ahead of HSBC’s special offer for Premier customers.

It follows ASB's move to cut its four year fixed term interest last week to 5.35 percent.

Lenders have made their first moves after the Reserve Bank issued a cautious note on the economy last week, forecasting the OCR would not rise until 2020 at the earliest.  The bank has repeatedly refused to rule out a cut, leading economists to change their forecasts and anticipate lower interest rates for longer."

Kiwibank economists revised their interest rate forecasts to a "lower for longer curve" following the Reserve Bank announcement. “We have discovered inflation to be a difficult beast to resuscitate in the post-crisis, and demographically challenged world. The realisation that the RBNZ Governor is seemingly more willing to let inflation run, led us last week to lower our OCR trajectory. Our 1-to-3 year interest rates forecasts, pegged to expectations for the OCR, were also mechanically lowered. Yet the Kiwibank economists say they expect a steeper yield curve once rates do eventually rise.

Mark Collins of Mike Pero Mortgages expects the trend towards lower long-term fixed rates to continue, as banks take the “opportunity” to entice customers away from shorter term deals. He believes banks are responding to the “certainty” of the interest rate environment. Collins said his network had not seen four-year fixed term deals for the past decade. 

While long-term rates may currently look attractive to borrowers seeking certainty, Collins issued a warning: “Rates are low and tipped to stay low, but there’s no such thing as an ironclad guarantee in finance. There could be a correction, there could be further drops in the OCR – four years is a long time to be locked in.”

Tags: ASB KiwiSaver Lending Mike Pero RBNZ

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 ▼6.79 ▼6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 ▼7.29 ▼7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 ▼6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 ▼7.39 ▼7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.30 7.89 7.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.30 8.89 8.69
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 ▼6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 7.15 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

Last updated: 14 March 2024 9:32am

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