tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Thursday, August 5th, 7:17PM

Mortgages

rss
Latest Headlines

How low could the OCR go?

Economists at lender ANZ believe we could see a 50 to 100 basis point cut in the OCR if the country’s financial data disappoints.

Tuesday, September 18th 2018, 7:30AM

Until recently a hike seemed more likely, but economists are increasingly entertaining the idea of a cut following the central bank's August MPS announcement.

Just how low could the OCR go? In its latest note to the market, the bank pondered whether one OCR cut would make a material difference to the economy, given how low rates are already.

The economists said the neutral OCR rate — a rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary - has fallen, indicating a longer period of lower rates.

The bank said a single cut (of 25 basis points) would not be a “game changer” in the low interest rate environment. Economists, led by Sharon Zollner, said: “If the data disappoints, we would likely be looking at a 50-100bp adjustment in the OCR. But in our view, this would make a difference. To get straight to the punchline: monetary policy is still working well – but it has changed.”

ANZ said the outlook for the economy was “uncertain” but “generally more downbeat”: “At the next OCR Review we expect that the RBNZ will continue to acknowledge risks to activity, keeping open the possibility that the next move in the OCR is down, and reiterating that it is willing to do what it takes to support the economy.”

Talk of a cut has grown louder in recent weeks after Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr revealed his concern about the economy in August. Orr told the market to “watch, worry and wait”.

Yet the fears could be overplayed. Second quarter GDP grew by 0.8 percent, an annual increase of 2.5 percent, according to a recent survey of economists conducted by newswire Bloomberg.

Tags: Adrian Orr ANZ RBNZ

« AI: Advice's next big disruptionMortgage brokers key channel for profit-surging banks: KPMG »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 2.55 2.95 3.29
ANZ 4.44 ▲3.15 ▲3.55 ▼3.75
ANZ Blueprint to Build 1.68 - - -
ANZ Special - ▲2.55 ▲2.95 ▼3.15
ASB Back My Build 1.79 - - -
ASB Bank 4.45 2.55 2.95 3.29
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - 2.55 2.95 3.25
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 3.15 3.22 3.85
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
CFML Loans 4.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 1.95 1.85 2.35 2.45
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.80 3.90 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 ▲2.29 ▲2.69 ▲2.99
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.67 2.97 3.13
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.75 3.34 3.34 4.14
Kiwibank - Offset 3.75 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.75 2.49 2.49 3.29
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 2.99 3.24 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 2.98 2.79 3.29
SBS Bank 4.54 ▲2.89 ▲3.29 ▲3.49
SBS Bank Special - ▲2.39 ▲2.79 ▲2.99
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 2.29 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 2.49 2.89 3.19
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 2.99 3.39 3.69
TSB Bank 5.34 3.30 3.69 4.04
TSB Special 4.54 2.50 2.89 3.24
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 4.59 3.15 3.49 3.89
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Westpac Special - 2.55 2.89 3.29
Median 4.54 2.78 2.99 3.29

Last updated: 5 August 2021 9:02am

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com