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House price falls more than 12 months away

House prices are likely to rise a further 10% to 15% next year but they will fall "to some unforecastable extent" in 2005, according to Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander.

Monday, January 5th 2004, 9:53PM

by The Landlord

House prices are already about 10% above their long-term trend, exactly where they were the last time the housing market peaked in 1987.

Fueling the continuing boom are factors such as immigration, which while declining, should still be positive. "If we get an extra 20,000 people in the next year, that’s still a lot of demand for housing," he says.

Interest rates are still low, the labour market is tight and job security high, making people readier to take on debt than if they were worried about losing their jobs. Added to these factors are the clear investor preference for housing and the current shortage of builders.

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build ▼3.34 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans ▼5.89 4.49 4.49 4.79
ANZ 5.69 5.09 5.09 5.39
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 4.49 4.49 4.79
ASB Bank 5.79 4.49 4.49 4.79
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance - Near Prime ▼6.35 - - -
Avanti Finance - Specialised ▼7.55 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.35 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 5.84 4.49 4.49 4.79
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans ▼3.95 - - -
CFML Home Loans ▼6.05 - - -
CFML Prime Loans ▼6.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans ▼6.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 6.44 4.85 4.95 4.95
China Construction Bank Special 6.44 5.85 5.95 5.95
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.35 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.99 4.45 4.49 4.79
Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.99 4.95 4.99 5.29
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 4.79 4.95 -
First Credit Union Standard 6.49 5.39 5.55 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▼5.30 5.89 - -
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage 7.99 - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 7.45 5.90 5.80 -
ICBC 5.39 4.25 4.59 4.79
Kainga Ora 6.29 4.75 4.75 4.99
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 5.65 5.39 5.39 5.65
Kiwibank - Offset 5.65 - - -
Kiwibank Special 6.15 4.49 4.49 4.85
Liberty 6.65 6.55 6.22 6.20
Nelson Building Society ▼6.49 4.59 ▼4.59 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 6.55 - - -
Pepper Money Prime 5.99 - - -
Pepper Money Specialist 8.00 - - -
SBS Bank ▼5.84 5.09 5.09 5.39
SBS Bank Special - 4.49 4.49 4.79
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Construction lending for FHB 3.74 - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo ▼3.29 4.29 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 7.99 - - -
TSB Bank ▼6.59 5.19 5.29 5.59
TSB Special ▼5.79 4.39 4.49 4.79
Unity First Home Buyer special - 3.99 - -
Unity Special 6.39 4.49 4.65 -
Unity Standard 6.39 5.29 5.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.15 4.59 4.59 -
Westpac 5.89 5.09 5.05 5.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Choices Everyday 5.99 - - -
Westpac Offset 5.89 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.49 4.45 4.75
Median 6.05 4.67 4.85 4.85

Last updated: 4 December 2025 2:52pm

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