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The official cash rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 8.25%.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: “The outlook for economic activity has deteriorated somewhat since we reviewed the OCR in January.

Thursday, March 6th 2008, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

The main reasons are weaker prospects for world growth, tighter credit conditions, a sharper-than-expected slowing in the housing market, and recent dry weather conditions. On balance, we now expect GDP growth of around 2% over the next three years.

“Despite the weaker outlook for activity, we expect headline inflation to remain high, partly due to the inclusion of the planned emissions trading scheme in our projection. Higher food and energy prices are also contributing to near-term inflation.

Furthermore, over the medium term, a tight labour market, strength in commodity prices, and the impact of announced government spending plans and assumed personal tax cuts will add to inflationary pressure. Excluding the effects of the emissions trading scheme, inflation is projected to return close to the mid-point of the target band by 2010.

“There is more uncertainty than usual at present, with downside risks to activity and upside risks to inflation. The main downside risks are a further deterioration in the world economy, tighter credit conditions, and the potential for a more severe downturn in the housing market.

Conversely, further strength in labour costs, additional fiscal stimulus, and high inflation expectations represent key upside risks to underlying inflation.

“Given this outlook, we expect that the OCR will need to remain at current levels for a significant time yet to ensure inflation outcomes of 1 to 3% on average over the medium term.”

 


Another related article can be found on Good Returns:

Bollard holds rates steady, highlights inflation, growth risks.
Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard left interest rates unchanged although his comments about upside risks to inflation pushed the currency and wholesale interest rates up. [more]

 

« OCR remains unchanged at 8.25%.Market perceives that Bollard softens the rhetoric »

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ANZ 5.19 4.15 ▼4.04 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.65 ▼3.54 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 4.15 4.09 4.39
ASB Bank Special - 3.65 3.59 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.65 ▼3.54 3.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 4.95 4.95 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.80 4.95 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.19 ▼4.15 ▼4.09 ▼4.39
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.35 3.35 3.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.65 3.85 3.95 3.89
Kiwibank 5.80 4.30 4.34 4.74
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.55 3.59 3.99
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.69 4.79 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.14 4.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.69 3.69 3.99
Sovereign 5.30 4.15 4.29 4.55
Sovereign Special - 3.65 3.75 4.05
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.65 3.59 3.99
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 4.15 4.09 4.49
TSB Bank 6.09 4.65 4.59 4.85
TSB Special 5.29 3.85 3.79 4.05
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.65 3.59 3.99
Median 5.35 4.15 4.09 4.19

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