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Indicator shows worst maybe over for housing market

The worst may be over for the housing market, according to the Mike Pero Mortgages-Infometrics Property Cycle Indicator (PCI).

Friday, May 22nd 2009, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

The indicator is a sensitive measure of the housing market and includes three main factors: changes in the number of houses sold; changes in price, and the time taken for houses to sell.

It runs from minus 10 to plus 10, with a minus being a downturn and a plus 10 indicating a strong upturn in the housing market In the past month the PCI rose from minus 5.93 to reach minus 3.36.

Mike Pero Mortgages chief executive Shaun Riley says “house sale volumes were up 40% in April, compared with a year earlier, which is particularly impressive considering the Easter holidays would have impacted on sales this year.”

Meanwhile the average time taken for a house to sell in April was 42 days, a shorter time than a year earlier, and the first time this measure has improved since mid-2007.

“Average house prices, the third component of the PCI, were down 1.4% in April compared with a year earlier, but are on a rising trend in the first four months of this year,” he says.

The average house sale price in April was $340,000, up from $325,000 in January. Riley says the PCI has been improving since August last year.

He says by using three variables, the PCI gives a “much better, and earlier, indication of shifts in the market” than other indicators.

Lower sales volumes are usually the first indicator that a market upturn is coming to an end, followed by properties taking longer to sell, while house prices are usually the last variable to change direction. House prices may still be rising, even though the index is negative and showing a downturn.

« Immigration pick up a plus for housing marketHouse prices and sales volumes steady »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.45 7.05 6.85
ANZ 8.64 ▼7.84 ▼7.39 ▼7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - ▼7.24 ▼6.79 ▼6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 ▼7.29 ▼6.85 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.29 6.85 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.89 7.45 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼7.09 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 ▼7.29 6.89 6.75
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 ▼7.79 7.39 7.25
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.85 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.59 7.29
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.35 7.89 7.65
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.35 6.89 6.75
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.90 7.39 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.30 7.89 7.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.30 8.89 8.69
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.95 7.45 7.29
SBS Bank Special - 7.45 6.95 6.79
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 7.05 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.19 7.55 7.55
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.39 6.75 6.75
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.85 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 7.15 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.45 7.37 6.77

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