ANZ property gauges point to decline in house prices
House prices are set to decline as rising interest rates and tougher credit conditions deter a second wave of buyers from entering the property market, according to ANZ National Bank’s property gauges.
Tuesday, December 22nd 2009, 12:00AM
by Paul McBeth
Five of the 10 gauges predict prices will fall this month, with a further gauge neutral with a negative bias. One was neutral and two were two with positive bias, while one gauge was still positive for house prices.
"The housing market responded to the monetary stimulus earlier this year," the bank's economists said in the report. "However, a constrained flow of credit is now impacting on the second wave of buyer interest."
Serviceability/indebtedness remained negative, though the report said it is improving, while liquidity and globalisation were also negative.
Mortgagee sales reached a new record high, while median rent clawed its way back into positive territory. Both gauges were also negative.
Interest rates were neutral with a negative bias as fixed rates between six months and two years edged up.
Affordability was neutral as higher mortgage rates choked buyers' ability to enter the market.
Supply-demand balance and consents and house sales were both neutral with a positive bias as construction continues to lag behind demand for housing, though it is slowly showing signs of life.
Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.
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