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House prices set to fall in cooling market: ANZ

The direction for house prices is down in what is a cooling market, according to ANZ's 10 property gauges.

Friday, February 19th 2010, 1:31PM

by Paul McBeth

The bank's economists say the market has been slowing down for three months and central bank loan approval data suggests this month may have wiped more momentum from property.

It picks prices to come down, with five of its 10 indicators negative, one neutral with a negative bias, one neutral, two neutral with a positive bias and one positive.

Serviceability and indebtedness, liquidity, globalisation, mortgagee sales and median rent were all negative for house prices, though most indicated the worst of the global financial crisis is over.

Interest rates was neutral with a negative bias with "some action at the longer end of the curve".

Affordability was back to more normal levels, though still shaky, and was deemed to have a neutral effect house prices.

The supply-demand balance, consents and house sales were neutral with a positive bias, with room for new construction, while migration remained the perpetual positive for house prices as a growing population requires housing.

Still, the bank's economist warn a rise in emigration to Australia could be on the cards after the so-called ‘lucky country' avoided a recession and has seen its unemployment rate steadily decline.

In conclusion, they decided there were jittery times ahead.

Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZFree Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 4.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ANZ 7.39 6.39 6.19 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.79 5.59 5.59
ASB Bank 7.39 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance ▼7.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance ▼8.35 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.44 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.54 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼5.69 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.95 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.95 ▼6.29 ▼6.09 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - ▼5.99 ▼5.89 -
First Credit Union Standard ▼7.69 ▼6.69 ▼6.39 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▼6.99 ▼5.49 ▼5.39 ▼5.45
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.60 6.65 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.25 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 7.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.25 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society ▼7.94 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank ▼7.49 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo ▼4.94 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.19 6.49 ▼6.39 ▼6.39
TSB Special 7.39 5.69 ▼5.59 ▼5.59
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 7.39 6.39 6.09 6.19
Westpac Choices Everyday 7.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 7.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 5.79 5.49 5.59
Median 7.49 5.99 5.79 5.69

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