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House prices face downwards pressure

House prices are facing downwards pressure as the property market "rolls to a halt" according to ANZ's 10 property gauges.

Tuesday, March 23rd 2010, 4:06PM 1 Comment

by Paul McBeth

The bank's economists say their indicators are pointing to more downside risk to property prices in spite of excess demand and central bank mortgage approval data implies things are not about to change.

ANZ picks prices to fall, with five of its 10 gauges negative, one neutral with a negative bias, one neutral, two neutral with a positive bias and one positive.

Serviceability/indebtedness, liquidity, globalisation, mortgagee sales and median rent were all negative, though they hinted that the worst was probably over.

Interest rates were neutral with a negative bias with three to five-year rates "above their decade averages".

Affordability was neutral, though this had been dented by rising interest rates.

Supply-demand balance and consents and house sales were neutral with a positive bias, with buyers "holding back as concerns over job prospects and pending changes to the taxation of residential investment".

Migration continued to be a positive for house prices, though the bank's economists said "a rise in departures to Australia remains a key risk" after New Zealand's largest trading partner avoided falling into recession and returns to normality.

The bank's economists conclude the property market is "becalmed" and with prices likely to keep falling after last year's gains.

 

Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZTax rate on some high income earners less than 10%: English »

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Comments from our readers

On 26 March 2010 at 3:40 pm STUART SNOW said:
I believe that one can build a multi- million dollar portfolio over time. I don't believe the government would receive the expected tax revenue from the changes and thet are in danger of severely reducing the rental housing pool and increasing rents.
Commenting is closed

 

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 4.05 3.95 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.55 3.45 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 4.05 3.95 4.39
ASB Bank Special - 3.55 3.45 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.55 3.45 3.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 4.95 4.95 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.80 4.95 -
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.35 3.35 3.35
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 4.04 3.95 4.39
Kiwibank 5.80 ▼4.14 ▲4.30 4.64
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - ▼3.39 ▲3.55 3.89
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.25 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 4.86 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.55 3.39 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 4.15 4.29 4.55
Sovereign Special - 3.65 3.75 4.05
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.35 4.25 4.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 5.29 3.55 3.45 3.89
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.55 3.45 3.99
Median 5.34 4.04 4.09 4.39

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