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Market set to potter along: QV

The residential property market is a mixed bag in terms of activity but looks set to "potter along" for the next while, according to QV.

Thursday, June 10th 2010, 12:05AM

by Maddy Milicich

QV research director Jonno Ingerson says it is hard to make a blanket statement about what's happening in the market because activity is so localised.

He says there are many different predictions about how the market will behave over the next while, but QV is predicting not a lot is going to happen, despite changes to tax affecting property investment.

"We see the market as pottering along. The feeling from our valuers is that overall it's business as usual," he says.

"Investors are going to get hit [with rises in GST and unable to claim building depreciation], but they will carry on."

The composition of the residential property market has seen a shift compared to the same time last year, with the latest figures from QV showing a widening gap in values compared to the market peak.

Nationally, values are now 4.1% below the market peak of late 2007 (down from 3.9% reported in April) and up 6% from the market low of April 2009.

Values for May are now 5.6% above this time last year, from the 6.1% reported a month earlier.

Ingerson says the decline in annual change is being driven both by what was happening this time last year and what has happened in recent months.

"At this time last year values were beginning to increase again after reaching their low in April 2009. They continued to increase until Christmas before flattening for the first few months of this year and now beginning to decline slightly," he says.

The national average sales price for the three months to May also decreased slightly to $403,070 from $405, 235 in April.

QV notes the supply demand balance is quite different now compared to last year, with consumer confidence returning to the market in the second half of last year after the recession, which flowed into the property market.

"Enthusiastic buyers were competing over a relatively short supply of properties and as a result prices were pushed up," Ingerson says.

But earlier this year the composition shifted, with more properties coming onto the market at the same time as buyer confidence was wavering due to pre-Budget announcements around tax changes aimed at property investment.

QV says while the tax changes to investment property may have some downward pressure on the lower end of the market, it is unlikely that the changes will cause prices to drop across the board. Instead, the company expects the general lack of buyer confidence and lower sales turnover to have downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Values in all the main urban centres have flattened or declined in recent months. To find out what's been happening in all main areas, click here.

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZFree Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

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