tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Thursday, December 5th, 7:44PM

News

rss
Latest Headlines

Dr Don's gloomy outlook for house prices

The world economy looks sick and if that continues it is hard to see house prices going up according to managing director of Huljich Wealth Management Dr Don Brash.

Tuesday, August 17th 2010, 12:00AM 2 Comments

by The Landlord

Speaking at the New Zealand Mortgage Brokers Association (NZMBA) conference about house prices, Brash says over the last three years the median house price has moved around for a small upward movement - which looks encouragingly stable.

However, he says household sector debt has grown enormously over the last 30 years from 40% at the beginning of the 80s to 160%, which means it has increased fourfold.

He says household sector debt service has also risen, though not as much because of lower interest rates, but would rise further if interest rates increase.

Brash says net immigration which has traditionally been a big driver of increases in house prices also now looks soggy.

He also acknowledged that Government policy threatens house prices in three ways:

  • Reduction in top personal tax rate from 38% to 33% reduces the attractiveness of losses arising from property investment
  • Inability to claim depreciation on buildings which have a life of more than 50 years also reduces the attractiveness of property investment
  • A government-appointed advisory group has been looking at the effect of Metropolitan Urban Limits (and similar restraints) on the price of residential land – which might lead to a change in policy which frees up supply of residential land.

The Economist has also suggested that many housing markets remain overcooked, with New Zealand fourth on the list with 23.7% overvaluation in house prices.

He says when you look at the path of real house prices in New Zealand since 1970 it's easy to be pessimistic and if the public thinks it couldn't see a big fall in real house prices in New Zealand, all it needs to do is look at the example of Japanese real land prices which have been declining since 1990.

 

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZFree Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

On 18 August 2010 at 2:13 pm nick said:
wrong..there is inflation, he should look at the price increase of building materials and labor...
On 19 August 2010 at 3:28 am vic said:
agree with u, nick.
Commenting is closed

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
  • Partners kills its matrix
    “@Backstage, thanks. I agree there is no relationship to CoFI, though, from a service perspective, I have two other providers...”
    2 days ago by JPHale
  • Partners kills its matrix
    “Partners Life has decided to stop using its COM for advisers as it believes the system may breach the CoFI regulations which...”
    2 days ago by Amused
  • Partners kills its matrix
    “Insurance companies should stick to their lane. They are not advisers and even those that employ advisers should not be crossing...”
    2 days ago by Tash
  • [GRTV] The nitty gritty of Smart’s ETFs
    “Advisors should consider all gateways into investment markets including cheaply priced ETFs to provide access to low priced...”
    3 days ago by Pragmatic
  • DRS member or not - client care remains advisers’ responsibility
    “FAPs are members of DRS too. Substitute “adviser” for “FAP” and the story is actually a lot more accurate. If...”
    3 days ago by Aggressively_passive
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News
Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 4.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ANZ 7.39 6.39 6.19 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.79 5.59 5.59
ASB Bank 7.39 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance ▼7.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance ▼8.35 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.44 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.54 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼5.69 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.95 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.95 ▼6.29 ▼6.09 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - ▼5.99 ▼5.89 -
First Credit Union Standard ▼7.69 ▼6.69 ▼6.39 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▼6.99 ▼5.49 ▼5.39 ▼5.45
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.60 6.65 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.25 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 7.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.25 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society ▼7.94 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank ▼7.49 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo ▼4.94 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.19 6.49 ▼6.39 ▼6.39
TSB Special 7.39 5.69 ▼5.59 ▼5.59
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 7.39 6.39 6.09 6.19
Westpac Choices Everyday 7.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 7.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 5.79 5.49 5.59
Median 7.49 5.99 5.79 5.69

Last updated: 5 December 2024 10:06am

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com