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Housing market remains weak

The housing market remains weak, with sales and average selling prices falling further in September according to the latest ANZ Property Focus, which described a housing market “lost at sea and struggling to keep its head above water.”

Monday, November 1st 2010, 12:00AM 1 Comment

by The Landlord

The ANZ Property Gauges use 10 indicators to assess the state of the property market and look  for signs that will impact on house prices.

The bank said that the Canterbury earthquake dented a market already struggling in a deleveraging environment with a slowdown in net inward migration.

Of the ten gauges only two showed a moderately positive direction for rising house prices - the supply/demand balance and consents and house sales.

The supply/demand balance gap was still wide but was closing and at its narrowest point for 18 months while the lack of action in consents and house sales was "drifting down."

Of the remaining eight gauges, five remain in neutral territory, one suggests either neutral or downward movement and two point to lower house prices.

Serviceability/indebtedness suggests downward price movement as interest servicing eases to a five-year low.

Liquidity also pointed to downward momentum as measured as a ratio to GDP, credit has all but stalled.

Affordability pointed to neutral or downward movement, with the bank saying affordability is at its best level for 12 months. 

Interest rates, migration, globalisation, mortgagee sales and median rent were all in neutral territory.

The bank said net migration is down to its lowest annual total for a year while the globalisation gauge showed house price growth has slowed in Australia, though at 18.4% it still remains four times New Zealand's rate of growth.

Mortgagee sales lifted in July and remain elevated while median rent saw the strongest rate of increase since December 2008.

The bank said the slowdown in net migration, added to factors such as falling sales and average selling prices, the earthquake and the slowing in the economy, suggest there is not a lot of optimism in the housing market at present, though it expects to see a pick up in 2011 as the economy gains momentum.

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZFree Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch »

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Comments from our readers

On 2 November 2010 at 8:31 am Peter said:
Could be some truth in it.
Commenting is closed

 

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 4.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ANZ 7.39 6.39 6.19 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.79 5.59 5.59
ASB Bank 7.39 ▼5.79 ▼5.49 ▼5.59
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance ▼7.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance ▼8.35 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.44 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.54 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼5.69 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.95 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.95 ▼6.29 ▼6.09 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - ▼5.99 ▼5.89 -
First Credit Union Standard ▼7.69 ▼6.69 ▼6.39 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▼6.99 ▼5.49 ▼5.39 ▼5.45
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.60 6.65 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.25 6.89 6.59 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 7.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.25 5.99 5.69 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society ▼7.94 5.95 6.09 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank ▼7.49 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - 6.15 5.69 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo ▼4.94 5.15 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.19 6.49 ▼6.39 ▼6.39
TSB Special 7.39 5.69 ▼5.59 ▼5.59
Unity 7.64 5.99 5.69 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.10 6.05 5.79 -
Westpac 7.39 6.39 6.09 6.19
Westpac Choices Everyday 7.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 7.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 5.79 5.49 5.59
Median 7.49 5.99 5.79 5.69

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